TVL anomaly — % drop in <1h

Evidence summary #

TVL down -31.62% over 30 days ($2.5B → $1.70B); 1-day change only -0.03%. 1h window signal not firing. 30d trend reflects orderly institutional outflow (lstBTC injunction, legal uncertainty, credit cycle), not exploit-drain. Yellow posture on trend.

Detail #

Detection rule: TVL drops >X% within 1 hour vs 30d baseline. Observed: 1-day change -0.03% (not firing on 1h window). 30-day change -31.62% (attributable to: Cayman injunction blocking ~$150M lstBTC assets Nov 2025; February 2026 website security breach causing reputational drag; broader institutional credit cycle reallocation). No single-hour catastrophic drain event documented. Baseline (30d median): ~$2.1–2.5B range. Gradual orderly decline pattern vs exploit-drain pattern.

Sources #

Methodology #

Detect whether TVL drops >X% within 1 hour versus the trailing 30-day baseline (X configurable per protocol TVL tier).

See the full factor methodology and distribution across all protocols →