TVL anomaly — % drop in <1h

Evidence summary #

V2+V3 combined: V2 TVL ~$968M, V3 TVL ~$1,776M, combined ~$2.744B (DefiLlama, 2026-05-12). 30d trend: V3 declining from ~$2.0-2.5B toward current ~$1.78B; V2 approximately flat. No acute drop event in assessment window. Threshold: >30% drop in <1h vs 30d baseline. Delta: materially unbreached. Zero combined protocol-level exploit history in 6+ years. Signal would NOT fire today.

Detail #

Tier-A signal: TVL drops >30% within 1h vs trailing 30d baseline. For V2: 30d baseline ~$968M; threshold fire would require drop to ~$678M in <1h — no such event observed. For V3: 30d baseline ~$1.78B (declining from ~$2.0B-2.5B over 90 days); threshold fire would require drop to ~$1.25B in <1h — no such event. The combined TVL of ~$2.744B is the largest DEX TVL in the coverage set. Data limitation: DefiLlama API for the 'uniswap' combined slug returned null (data cache pipeline gap); per-version TVL from uniswap-v2 and uniswap-v3 slugs verified via profile §4 and meta.json. No sector-wide correlation event detected in assessment window.

Sources #

Methodology #

Detect whether TVL drops >X% within 1 hour versus the trailing 30-day baseline (X configurable per protocol TVL tier).

See the full factor methodology and distribution across all protocols →